If ever you read about any kind of “system” someone is trying to sell you or any kind of sports betting tipping service etc., you’d be well-advised to completely ignore it. If anyone “knew” anything in advance, they wouldn’t be busy trying to sell it to you – they’d be busy making a killing themselves. So please ignore all this stuff.
At the same time there are an increasing number of people around the world making a living from gambling online on various sports – so how do they do it and is it possible for any of us to emulate what they do?
Well first things first – it is possible to make a steady profit at sports gambling if you’re balanced and determined enough and, crucially, you understand value as a concept and have a niche knowledge in some way.
So what do we mean by value as a concept?
Well simply put, you need to have a feel for the study of mathematical probabilities and the way that even small margins can result in one side of a wager winning very large amounts over time. After all, it’s this simple principle on which the whole of the worldwide casino industry (whether online or real) is built. They call it the house edge.
So let’s consider roulette as a simple option. Roulette comes pretty close to giving gamblers an even chance in European versions of the game anyway when there is just the one “zero” slot. This means that you have a 48.6% chance of doubling your money if you select red or black, or odd or even numbers etc.
Conversely, it means the house (i.e. the casino) has a 51.4% chance of winning. And just that small percentage – the house edge – is sufficient when enough gamblers gamble long enough. It’s inevitable that the house will steadily profit – so the more players it gets, the bigger those profits are. There have been some big individual winners in casinos over time – but the really big winners are the casinos themselves, courtesy of that small percentage difference. That’s all it takes to make millions upon millions if you can get enough people to play with enough money. The laws of probability do the rest.
This is what we mean by value as a concept. So to overcome the edge, you have to have your own edge. And this usually means either an in-depth knowledge of a sport or some kind of information that the rest of the market hasn’t woken up to yet.
So look for opportunities in one-to-one situations mainly – where you think the wider market’s odds don’t reflect the actual chances of real-life events. You’re more likely to be able to spot these if you know a minority sport inside out. This will give you the kind of edge we’re talking about here –though you also need to understand value.
Let’s look at one specific example, then, of a sport that is big in some other countries but not here in Canada. In some niche areas like gambling on rugby league with exchanges like Betfair – a detailed knowledge and the ability to analyze a game can really help. In Canada, of course, rugby league is a relatively tiny minority sport, but in both the UK and Australia that is not the case at all. In these countries, gambling on the sport is huge business – often via handicap betting where the odds are slightly less than even money, but one of the teams is given ‘X’ points start to even things up in the eyes of the market anyway.
The fact that rugby league is such a minority sport in Canada though, gives expert punters here a real edge – on games in the country. And that’s all any of us can hope to do – get a small edge on the market. That’s because making a steady profit at any form of gambling is a very tough thing to achieve – so even with the exchanges markets where the odds are slightly better than with the bookies, you still need to overcome the five per cent commission charged by the exchange betting website on each and every winning bet.
It’s rather like one of those old fashioned “penny falls” machines you see in amusement arcades where some of sliding off the side each time
the cash (in this case around five per cent) is into the proprietor’s coffers. In other words, if you keep gambling away and the market has the odds perfectly right all the time, then you are sure to lose gradually over time. In fact, to be specific, you’ll lose five per cent steadily – obviously.
So not only do you need to understand your niche sport inside out – but you also need to be shrewd and understand the whole concept of a true ‘value’ bet. This may sound obvious but it isn’t in practice as people are swayed by the market. But there’s one neat trick which is a really easy way around this “sway” problem and it’s this; always try to come up with your best educated guess of the likely odds of any market you feel you know pretty well before looking at the actual odds. Then – and only then – take the odds when you see that they’re markedly bigger than you think they “should” be.
This neatly gets around any extraneous external factors – and helps clear your mind of any market-driven bias in ignorance of what the market has actually made of it. Remember that you will have to be contrarian to make money over a long enough period of time at this game. Otherwise – if the market always called the odds on everything just right, there would be theoretically no room for the professional gamblers to make money – yet there are plenty people doing just that. And they all either have a system, or an in-depth knowledge of their chosen markets that has been tried and tested and is proven to beat the rest of the market over time – or they have a little of both of these things. You cannot win by being the same as everyone else – that’s a given.
Just remember that if you think you have what it takes – to trial and trial again your ideas with tiny amounts of cash only at first – whilst treating that amount like its 100 or 1,000 times as much. For the Silo, Claire Siblot. Online Media Relations Specialist. Leeds, UK
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