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Finance

World Economic Forum Report Outlines Long Term “No Regrets”

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New Report Charts Key Strategies and Trade-Offs for Long-Term Growth
The World Economic Forum report outlines key “no-regret” strategies and unresolved dilemmas shaping economic growth in the long-term.

The new economy will be shaped by accelerating AI adoption, geostrategic competition, high public and private debt, and environmental and demographic challenges. Energy costs and political instability currently prevent accelerating growth, while the expansion of IT services, advanced manufacturing, health and leisure will drive output in the future. Read more about the Future of Growth Initiative.

Geneva, Switzerland, April 2026 – As the growth strategies that powered the global economy over the past three decades lose relevance, a new World Economic Forum report calls for a renewed blueprint to navigate a rapidly evolving landscape shaped by AI, geostrategic competition, rising debt and inequality, and mounting environmental and demographic pressures. The report draws on two years of dialogue with nearly 200 global business leaders, policy-makers and experts, and a survey of more than 11,000 executives worldwide.

Four Areas Of Economic Policy


Across four major areas of economic policy, Growth in the New Economy: Towards a Blueprint identifies key “no-regret” strategies and open dilemmas for governments and businesses that will define economic policy in the coming decade:

Technology, productivity and human capital: Sustained growth in the new economy will depend on strengthening productivity and human capital as technology and knowledge become central to value creation. Governments and businesses must navigate between different approaches to translating innovation into new sources of growth and ensuring its benefits are widely shared, pursuing coordinated or competition-led approaches to harness technology and prioritize redistribution or mobility-based strategies for economic inclusion.

Global cooperation and domestic capacity: Leveraging comparative advantage and diversification remain “no-regret” strategies that may enable expansion of economic opportunity and resilience. Yet, governments and businesses will need to balance global engagement with stronger domestic capacity, navigating between self-reliance and global integration strategies.

Business environment and the role of government: In the new economy, reinforcing the fundamentals of economic policy – including credible institutions, high-quality infrastructure and macroeconomic stability – and strengthening multistakeholder alignment continue to be winning strategies. The role of government in economic transformation can range from minimal to more expansive, while policy-makers face hard choices to manage debt levels, shifting between greater fiscal prudence and forms of financial repression.

Sustainability and economic policy: Focusing on the economic and societal benefits of green transition strategies is essential to unlocking long-term prosperity and resilience. Critical dilemmas around how to manage the costs and trade-offs of greener growth persist, with decision-makers navigating a range of investment-led and cost-led strategies.”

The current context demands bold choices and trade-offs from government and businesses. Investing in productivity, talent and reinforcing the fundamentals of economic policy are clear winning strategies that hold across every country and income level,” said Attilio Di Battista, Head of Economic Growth and Transformation, World Economic Forum. “Yet, leaders will need to navigate complex dilemmas while managing record levels of debt and inequalities, rising geostrategic competition, a persisting climate crisis and the fastest technological shift in a generation.”



Shifting engines of global growth


Amid disruptions brought by the current conflict in the Middle East, the report points to long-term shifts in the composition and drivers of economic growth. Middle-income economies are expected to account for nearly two-thirds of global GDP growth through 2030. Regionally, Asia will continue to be the main driver of growth, accounting for more than 50% of global growth. Despite registering the fastest growth rates, low-income economies are projected to contribute just 1% of global growth over the same period.
 
Information technology services, advanced manufacturing, health and healthcare, and accommodation and leisure sectors are expected to drive growth over the next five years, with Asia, Europe and North America as key hotspots. Latin America and the Caribbean will see opportunities in the agriculture, mining and metals sectors.  
 
Opportunities and challenges

Based on the results of the recent survey of 11,000 business leaders, the report highlights high energy costs and policy instability as the two barriers that are constraining an acceleration of economic growth across various geographies and income levels.
 
Other barriers vary by country income level. In high-income economies, skill shortages and rigid regulations are seen as the top barriers, while in low-income economies, limited access to finance and inadequate infrastructure were top concerns.
 
In the long-term, frontier technologies and the green and energy transition are identified as trends that will drive growth and investment, while high debt, societal polarization and climate change are seen as potential headwinds across regions and income levels.
 
Demographic shifts and geoeconomic fragmentation are expected to create divergent growth trajectories, with ageing populations slowing growth in Eastern Asia and Europe, and younger populations supporting growth in the Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Geoeconomic fragmentation is seen as a drag on growth in most countries, though executives expect South-East Asia to benefit from shifting supply chains and trade patterns.
 
In addition, domestic corporate investment and foreign demand are seen as the main drivers of growth over the next five years. Domestic investment is especially important in low- and middle-income economies, while advanced economies look to foreign markets. Domestic consumption and public spending are expected to play a smaller role due to high public debt and stagnant real incomes.

About Growth in the New Economy: Towards a Blueprint
The report draws on two years of dialogues held as part of the World Economic Forum’s Future of Growth Initiative, with policy-makers, business leaders and economists convening in Davos-Klosters, Dubai, New York, Riyadh, Tianjin and Washington DC between 2024 and 2026, and integrates inputs from the Global Future Councils on the Future of Growth and the Business of Economic Growth. It also consolidates insights from more than 11,000 business leaders in 118 countries participating in the World Economic Forum Executive Opinion Survey 2025. Read the full report here.
 
Throughout 2026, the Future of Growth Dialogue Series will continue exploring the emerging frontiers of the new economy, as well as new sources and pathways to growth, productivity and innovation. The Future of Growth Initiative is complemented by the World Economic Forum’s Scenarios for the Global Economy Dialogue Series, leveraging foresight to explore scenarios for the future of growth and their implications for strategy, investment decisions and resilience across industries.

For the Silo, Jarrod Barker.

Finance

World Economic Forum- Why Experts Expect Global Growth

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82% of chief economists expect the global economy to remain stable or strengthen this year – almost twice as many as in late 2023
Over two-thirds predict a sustained rebound of global growth, driven by technological transformation, artificial intelligence and the green transition.
There is near-unanimity that geopolitics and domestic politics will drive economic volatility this year. Read the May 2024 Chief Economist Outlook here

Geneva, Switzerland,May 2024 – The latest Chief Economists Outlook released today presents a growing sense of cautious optimism about the global economy in 2024. More than eight in ten chief economists expect the global economy to either strengthen or remain stable this year – nearly double the proportion in the previous report. The share of those predicting a downturn in global conditions declined from 56% in January to 17%.
 
But geopolitical and domestic political tensions cloud the horizon. Some 97% of respondents anticipate that geopolitics will contribute to global economic volatility this year. A further 83% said domestic politics will be a source of volatility in 2024, a year when nearly half the world’s population is voting.
 
“The latest Chief Economists Outlook points to welcome but tentative signs of improvement in the global economic climate,” said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director, World Economic Forum. “This underscores the increasingly complex landscape that leaders are navigating. There is an urgent need for policy-making that not only looks to revive the engines of the global economy but also seeks to put in place the foundations of more inclusive, sustainable and resilient growth.”
 
Regional variations
 
Growth expectations have improved, though unevenly, across the globe. The survey reveals a significant boost in the outlook for the United States, where nearly all chief economists (97%) now expect moderate to strong growth this year, up from 59% in January.
 
Asian economies also appear robust, with all respondents projecting at least moderate growth in the South Asia and East Asia and Pacific regions. Expectations for China are slightly less optimistic, with three-quarters expecting moderate growth and only 4% predicting strong growth this year.
 
By contrast, the outlook for Europe remains gloomy, with nearly 70% of economists predicting weak growth for the remainder of 2024. Other regions are expected to experience broadly moderate growth, with a slight improvement since the previous survey.



A challenging landscape for decision-makers
 
The latest survey highlights the escalating challenges confronting businesses and policy-makers. Tensions between political and economic dynamics will be a growing challenge for decision-makers this year, according to 86% of respondents, while 79% expect heightened complexity to weigh on decision-making.
 
Among the factors expected to affect corporate decision-making are the overall health of the global economy (cited by 100%), monetary policy (86%), financial markets (86%), labour market conditions (79%), geopolitics (86%) and domestic politics (71%). Notably, 73% of economists believe that companies’ growth objectives will drive decision-making, almost double the proportion that cited the role of companies’ environmental and social goals (37%).
 
Long-term prospects and priorities
 
Most chief economists are upbeat about the prospects for a sustained rebound in global growth, with nearly 70% expecting a return to 4% growth in the next five years (42% within three years). In high-income countries, they expect growth to be driven by technological transformation, artificial intelligence, and the green and energy transition. However, opinions are divided on the impact of these factors in low-income economies. There is greater consensus on the factors that will be a drag on growth, with geopolitics, domestic politics, debt levels, climate change and social polarization expected to dampen growth in both high- and low-income economies.



In terms of the policy levers most likely to foster growth in the next five years, the most important across the board are innovation, infrastructure development, monetary policy, and education and skills. Low-income economies are seen as having more to gain from interventions relating to institutions, social services and access to finance compared to high-income economies. There is a notable lack of consensus on the impact for growth of environmental and industrial policies.
 
About the Chief Economists Outlook Report
The Chief Economists Outlook builds on the latest policy development research as well as consultations and surveys with leading chief economists from both the public and private sectors, organized by the World Economic Forum’s Centre for the New Economy and Society. It aims to summarize the emerging contours of the current economic environment and identify priorities for further action by policy-makers and business leaders in response to the compounding shocks to the global economy. The survey featured in this briefing was conducted in April 2024.
 
The Chief Economists Outlook supports the World Economic Forum’s Future of Growth Initiative, a two-year campaign aimed at inspiring discussion and action on charting new pathways for economic growth and supporting policy-makers in balancing growth, innovation, inclusion, sustainability and resilience goals. Learn more about the Future of Growth Initiative here.
The World Economic Forum, committed to improving the state of the world, is the International Organization for Public-Private Cooperation. The Forum engages the foremost political, business and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas. (www.weforum.org).