中文 | 日本語 | Español Quick Takeaways -72% of chief economists expect global economy to weaken in 2026 as disruptions in trade, technology, resources and institutions signal a shift to a new economic environment. -Regional growth pathways are diverging: 56% anticipate greater divergence between advanced and developing economies, with MENA and South Asia emerging as bright spots. -Debt risks are intensifying in advanced economies, with 80% of respondents expecting vulnerabilities to grow.
New York, USA, October 2025 – The global economy is entering a period of weak growth and systemic disruption, according to the World Economic Forum’s latest Chief Economists’ Outlook, published today. Some 72% of surveyed chief economists expect the global economy to weaken over the next year, amid intensifying trade disruption, rising policy uncertainty and accelerating technological change. The findings point to the emergence of a new economic environment shaped by persistent disruption and growing fragmentation.
Diverging Pathways in a Fragmented Global Economy The Outlook highlights sharp regional fault lines. Emerging markets are anticipated to be the main engines of growth, with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), South Asia and East Asia and Pacific seen as bright spots. One in three chief economists expect strong or very strong growth in these regions. The outlook for China is more mixed, with 56% of chief economists anticipating moderate growth, though deflationary pressures are expected to persist. Growth is expected to remain more stagnant in advanced economies. In Europe, 40% expect weak growth with fiscal loosening (74%) and low or moderate inflation (88%). In the United States [& Canada ed.], most chief economists (52%) anticipate weak or very weak growth and high inflation (59%) as monetary policy is loosened (85%).
The chief economists warn that advanced and developing economies are on increasingly divergent growth pathways – 56% expect greater divergence over the next three years.
Towards a New Economic Environment Chief economists overwhelmingly agree that today’s disruptions are structural rather than cyclical. Large majorities anticipate long-term disruption in natural resources and energy (78%), technology and innovation (75%), trade and global value chains (63%) and global economic institutions (63%). This marks an important shift. The global economy is not so much weathering isolated shocks as realigning, raising the stakes for new forms of leadership, cooperation and resilience.
“The contours of a new economic environment are already taking shape, defined by disruption across trade, technology, resources and institutions,” said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director, World Economic Forum. “Leaders must adapt with urgency and collaboration to turn today’s turbulence into tomorrow’s resilience.”
Trade Realignment, Fiscal Strain and Debt Risks Structural shifts in the global economy are playing out most visibly in trade, fiscal policy and debt. Some 70% of surveyed chief economists rate the current level of trade disruption as “very high”, far above other domains of the economy, and over three-quarters also expect disruption to trade and global value chains to cascade into other domains. In financial markets and monetary policy, 45% of surveyed economists rate disruption as high or very high, yet only 21% expect it to last. Even so, while 52% see a major near-term crisis in advanced economies as unlikely, 85% warn that any shock could have wide systemic effects.
With global public debt levels mounting, the chief economists surveyed highlight that debt vulnerabilities, once largely associated with emerging economies, are increasingly centred in advanced ones – 80% expect risks in advanced economies to grow in the year ahead. Fiscal vulnerabilities are also more frequently identified among the top growth inhibitors in advanced economies (41%) compared to developing economies (12%). Follow the Sustainable Development Impact Meetings 2025 here and on social media using #SDIM25.
About the Chief Economists’ Outlook The report builds on extensive consultations and surveys with chief economists from the public and private sectors, organized by the World Economic Forum’s Centre for the New Economy and Society. The report supports the Future of Growth Initiative, aiming to foster dialogue and actionable pathways to sustainable and inclusive economic growth.
About the Sustainable Development Impact Meetings 2025 The Sustainable Development Impact Meetings 2025 takes place from 22 to 26 September in New York, bringing together over 1,000 global leaders from diverse sectors and geographies. Held ahead of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026, these meetings are part of the Forum’s year-round work to accelerate progress on the growth, resilience and innovation through multistakeholder dialogues and action.
82% of chief economists expect the global economy to remain stable or strengthen this year – almost twice as many as in late 2023 Over two-thirds predict a sustained rebound of global growth, driven by technological transformation, artificial intelligence and the green transition. There is near-unanimity that geopolitics and domestic politics will drive economic volatility this year. Read the May 2024 Chief Economist Outlook here
Geneva, Switzerland,May 2024 – The latest Chief Economists Outlook released today presents a growing sense of cautious optimism about the global economy in 2024. More than eight in ten chief economists expect the global economy to either strengthen or remain stable this year – nearly double the proportion in the previous report. The share of those predicting a downturn in global conditions declined from 56% in January to 17%.
But geopolitical and domestic political tensions cloud the horizon. Some 97% of respondents anticipate that geopolitics will contribute to global economic volatility this year. A further 83% said domestic politics will be a source of volatility in 2024, a year when nearly half the world’s population is voting.
“The latest Chief Economists Outlook points to welcome but tentative signs of improvement in the global economic climate,” said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director, World Economic Forum. “This underscores the increasingly complex landscape that leaders are navigating. There is an urgent need for policy-making that not only looks to revive the engines of the global economy but also seeks to put in place the foundations of more inclusive, sustainable and resilient growth.”
Regional variations
Growth expectations have improved, though unevenly, across the globe. The survey reveals a significant boost in the outlook for the United States, where nearly all chief economists (97%) now expect moderate to strong growth this year, up from 59% in January.
Asian economies also appear robust, with all respondents projecting at least moderate growth in the South Asia and East Asia and Pacific regions. Expectations for China are slightly less optimistic, with three-quarters expecting moderate growth and only 4% predicting strong growth this year.
By contrast, the outlook for Europe remains gloomy, with nearly 70% of economists predicting weak growth for the remainder of 2024. Other regions are expected to experience broadly moderate growth, with a slight improvement since the previous survey.
A challenging landscape for decision-makers
The latest survey highlights the escalating challenges confronting businesses and policy-makers. Tensions between political and economic dynamics will be a growing challenge for decision-makers this year, according to 86% of respondents, while 79% expect heightened complexity to weigh on decision-making.
Among the factors expected to affect corporate decision-making are the overall health of the global economy (cited by 100%), monetary policy (86%), financial markets (86%), labour market conditions (79%), geopolitics (86%) and domestic politics (71%). Notably, 73% of economists believe that companies’ growth objectives will drive decision-making, almost double the proportion that cited the role of companies’ environmental and social goals (37%).
Long-term prospects and priorities
Most chief economists are upbeat about the prospects for a sustained rebound in global growth, with nearly 70% expecting a return to 4% growth in the next five years (42% within three years). In high-income countries, they expect growth to be driven by technological transformation, artificial intelligence, and the green and energy transition. However, opinions are divided on the impact of these factors in low-income economies. There is greater consensus on the factors that will be a drag on growth, with geopolitics, domestic politics, debt levels, climate change and social polarization expected to dampen growth in both high- and low-income economies.
In terms of the policy levers most likely to foster growth in the next five years, the most important across the board are innovation, infrastructure development, monetary policy, and education and skills. Low-income economies are seen as having more to gain from interventions relating to institutions, social services and access to finance compared to high-income economies. There is a notable lack of consensus on the impact for growth of environmental and industrial policies.
About the Chief Economists Outlook Report The Chief Economists Outlook builds on the latest policy development research as well as consultations and surveys with leading chief economists from both the public and private sectors, organized by the World Economic Forum’s Centre for the New Economy and Society. It aims to summarize the emerging contours of the current economic environment and identify priorities for further action by policy-makers and business leaders in response to the compounding shocks to the global economy. The survey featured in this briefing was conducted in April 2024.
The Chief Economists Outlook supports the World Economic Forum’s Future of Growth Initiative, a two-year campaign aimed at inspiring discussion and action on charting new pathways for economic growth and supporting policy-makers in balancing growth, innovation, inclusion, sustainability and resilience goals. Learn more about the Future of Growth Initiativehere.
The World Economic Forum, committed to improving the state of the world, is the International Organization for Public-Private Cooperation. The Forum engages the foremost political, business and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas. (www.weforum.org).
