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| Chief Economists Perceive Relative Resilience but Remain Concerned about Asset Prices, Debt and Geoeconomic Tensions Acknowledging the relative resilience of the global economy amid turbulence, 53% of chief economists surveyed expect global economic conditions to weaken in the year ahead, down from 72% in September 2025.Uncertainty around technology remains high, with 52% expecting AI-related stocks to decline and 40% expecting gains. On growth, expectations diverge by region, with economists expecting strong momentum in South Asia and East Asia and weak to moderate growth in Europe. On macroeconomics, nearly a third of respondents are concerned about sovereign debt crises in advanced economies and nearly half in emerging economies; over 60% expect governments to rely on higher inflation and tax revenues to manage elevated debt.Learn more about the Chief Economists’ Outlook here. Follow the Annual Meeting 2026 here and on social media using #WEF26. Geneva, Switzerland, January 2026 – The global economic outlook has improved modestly but remains uncertain, with asset valuations, mounting debt, geoeconomic realignment and rapid artificial intelligence deployment creating both opportunities and risks, according to the World Economic Forum’s latest Chief Economists’ Outlook, published today. Although 53% of chief economists expect global economic conditions to weaken in the year ahead, this marks a significant improvement from the 72% who held this view in September 2025. “The Chief Economists survey reveals three defining trends for 2026: surging AI investment and its implications for the global economy; debt approaching critical thresholds with unprecedented shifts in fiscal and monetary policies; and trade realignments,” said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director, World Economic Forum. “Governments and companies will have to navigate an uncertain near-term environment with agility while continuing to build resilience and invest in the long-term fundamentals of growth.” AI and other asset valuations are under scrutiny Concentrated AI stock gains are splitting the views of the chief economists. A narrow majority (52%) are expecting AI-related US stocks to decline over the next year, but 40% foresee further increases. Should values fall sharply, 74% believe impacts would spread across the global economy. Cryptocurrencies face bleaker prospects, with 62% anticipating further declines following market turbulence, while 54% believe gold has peaked after recent rallies. When it comes to the potential expected returns from AI, there is wide variation across regions and sectors. Roughly four in five chief economists expect productivity gains within two years in the US and China. Chief economists expect the information technology sector to adopt AI fastest, with nearly three-quarters anticipating imminent productivity gains. Financial services, supply chain, healthcare, engineering and retail follow as “fast-movers”, with one to two-year timelines. By firm size, the chief economists expect companies with 1,000+ employees to see gains earlier than others: 77% of chief economists expect meaningful productivity gains within two years. The employment picture in relation to AI is expected to evolve over time: two thirds expect modest job losses over the next two years, but views diverge sharply over the longer term: 57% anticipate net losses over 10 years, while 32% foresee gains as new occupations emerge. Debt may drive difficult trade-offs Managing elevated debt levels has become a central challenge for policy-makers, particularly as spending pressures rise. Defence spending is almost unanimously expected to increase, with 97% of chief economists anticipating rises in advanced economies and 74% in emerging markets. Digital infrastructure and energy spending are also expected to rise. Most other sectors are expected to see stable levels of spending, while a majority of surveyed economists anticipate spending on environmental protection to decline in both advanced (59%) and emerging economies (61%). Views are split equally on the likelihood of sovereign debt crises in advanced economies, while nearly half (47%) see them as likely in the year ahead in emerging economies. A large majority of chief economists expect governments to rely on higher inflation to reduce burdens (67% in advanced economies, 61% in emerging markets). Tax increases are also viewed as likely by 62% for advanced economies and 53% for emerging markets. Some 53% of chief economists anticipate seeing debt restructuring or default as a debt management strategy in emerging markets over five years, compared to just 6% for advanced economies. Trade flows and regional growth outlooks are realigning Global trade and investment are adjusting to a new, competitive reality. Chief economists expect import tariffs between the US and China to remain mostly stable, though competition could intensify in other domains. Some 91% expect US tech export restrictions to China to remain or increase; 84% anticipate the same for Chinese critical mineral restrictions. In this new context, 94% of chief economists expect more bilateral trade deals and 69% anticipate growth in regional trade agreements. Some 89% expect Chinese exports into non-US markets to further increase, while surveyed economists are split on the future of global trade volumes. Meanwhile, almost half of them foresee the continued rise of international investment flows, and 57% expect FDI into the US to increase compared to 9% who expect increased inflows to China. When it comes to growth expectation among the chief economists surveyed, South Asia leads with 66% anticipating strong or very strong performance, driven by robust growth in India. Some 45% expect strong growth and 55% moderate growth in East Asia and the Pacific. Some 36% expect strong growth and 64% moderate growth in the MENA region. The US outlook improved notably, with 69% expecting moderate growth versus 49% in September 2025, but only 11% expecting strong growth. China faces mixed prospects, with 47% expecting moderate growth and 24% strong growth and nearly an equal number – 29% – expecting weak growth. Europe confronts the weakest outlook, with 53% expecting weak growth, 44% moderate growth, and only 3% anticipating strong growth. About the Chief Economists’ Outlook The report builds on extensive consultations and surveys with chief economists from the public and private sectors, organized by the World Economic Forum’s Centre for the New Economy and Society. The report supports the Forum’s Future of Growth Initiative, aiming to foster dialogue and actionable pathways to sustainable and inclusive economic growth. The Chief Economists’ Outlook is complemented by other recent publications with economic foresight. Four Futures for the New Economy and Four Futures for Jobs in the New Economy explore strategic implications for businesses navigating geopolitical shifts, technology disruption and workforce transformation through 2030, offering indicators to track and strategies to prepare for multiple scenarios. About the Annual Meeting 2026 The World Economic Forum’s 56th Annual Meeting, taking place today the 19th and running until 23 January 2026 in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, will convene leaders from business, government, international organizations, civil society and academia under the theme, A Spirit of Dialogue. Click here to learn more. |
| A Spirit of Dialogue Brings Record Numbers of World Leaders to Davos for World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026 A record 400 top political leaders, including close to 65 heads of state and government – with six G7 leaders expected – nearly 850 of the world’s top CEOs and chairs, and almost 100 leading unicorns and technology pioneers will convene in Davos-Klosters for one of the highest-level gatherings in the Annual Meeting’s history. Held under the theme of A Spirit of Dialogue, the 56th Annual Meeting will provide an impartial platform for close to 3,000 participants from over 130 countries to navigate the major economic, geopolitical and technological forces reshaping the global landscape. A major focus will be on the unprecedented speed of innovation and technological advancement with key voices from industry and academia present.– At a pivotal moment for global cooperation, the World Economic Forum will convene its 56th Annual Meeting today in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, bringing together close to 3,000 cross-sector leaders from over 130 countries under the theme A Spirit of Dialogue. Marking record levels of governmental participation, 400 top political leaders – including close to 65 heads of state and government and six of the G7’s leaders – are expected to take part, alongside nearly 850 of the world’s top CEOs and chairpersons, and almost 100 leading unicorns and technology pioneers. Amid the most complex geopolitical backdrop in decades – marked by rising fragmentation and rapid technological change – the need for an impartial platform that brings together diverse and sometimes diverging voices across industries, regions, and generations is urgent. Building on the Forum’s long-standing tradition of providing a trusted space for dialogue and public-private collaboration, the Annual Meeting 2026 will enable an open exchange of ideas and perspectives on the issues that matter most to people, economies and the planet, turning shared understanding into action. “Dialogue is not a luxury in times of uncertainty; it is an urgent necessity,” said Børge Brende, President and CEO, World Economic Forum. “At a critical juncture for international cooperation – marked by profound geoeconomic and technological transformation – this year’s Annual Meeting will be one of our most consequential. With historic levels of participation, it will provide a space for an unparalleled mix of global leaders and innovators to work through and look beyond divisions, gain insight into a fast-shifting global landscape, and advance solutions to today’s and tomorrow’s biggest and most pressing challenges.” “As the World Economic Forum enters its next chapter, this year’s Annual Meeting is bringing together a record number of global leaders from government, business, and non-governmental organizations at a moment when dialogue matters more than ever,” said Larry Fink, Interim Co-Chair, World Economic Forum. “Understanding different perspectives is essential to driving economic progress and ensuring prosperity is more broadly shared.” “At a moment when cooperation matters more than ever, the Annual Meeting provides a unique space to turn dialogue into meaningful progress,” said André Hoffmann, Interim Co-Chair, World Economic Forum. “By bringing together leaders across regions and sectors, it creates the conditions to rebuild trust, align priorities and advance solutions that support long-term, sustainable growth for all, within planetary boundaries.” Switzerland is the host country for the meeting. 400 government leaders are expected to attend this year, representing the highest level of government participation in the Annual Meeting’s history, including close to 65 heads of state and government, 55 ministers for economy and finance, 33 ministers for foreign affairs, 34 ministers for trade, commerce and industry, and 11 Governors of Central Banks. High-level government representation is expected from all key regions, including six G7 leaders and heads of state from countries central to dialogue on critical global situations – from Ukraine to Gaza and the broader Middle East, and beyond. Top political leaders taking part include: Top political leaders taking part include: Donald Trump, President of the United States of America; Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada; Friedrich Merz, Federal Chancellor of Germany; Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission; He Lifeng, Vice-Premier of the People’s Republic of China; Javier Milei, President of Argentina; Prabowo Subianto, President of Indonesia; Pedro Sánchez, Prime Minister of Spain; Guy Parmelin, President of the Swiss Confederation 2026; Vahagn Khachaturyan, President of the Republic of Armenia; Ilham Aliyev, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan; Bart De Wever, Prime Minister of Belgium; Gustavo Petro, President of Colombia; Félix-Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo, President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo; Daniel Noboa Azín, President of Ecuador; Alexander Stubb, President of Finland; Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Prime Minister of Greece; Micheál Martin, Taoiseach, Ireland; Aziz Akhannouch, Head of Government, Kingdom of Morocco; Daniel Francisco Chapo, President of Mozambique; Dick Schoof, Prime Minister of the Netherlands; Mian Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif, Prime Minister of Pakistan; Mohammed Mustafa, Prime Minister of the Palestinian National Authority; Karol Nawrocki, President of Poland; Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the State of Qatar; Aleksandar Vučić, President of Serbia; Tharman Shanmugaratnam, President of Singapore; Isaac Herzog, President of the State of Israel; Ahmad Al Sharaa, President of Syria; Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine. Heads of international organizations taking part include: António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations; Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the World Trade Organization; Ajay S. Banga, President of the World Bank Group; Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund; Mark Rutte, Secretary-General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization; Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the World Health Organization; Alexander De Croo, Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme; Mathias Cormann, Secretary-General of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; Doreen Bogdan-Martin, Secretary-General of the International Telecommunication Union; Barham Salih, UN High Commissioner for Refugees; Jasem Al Budaiwi, Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Around 1,700 business leaders, including close 850 of the world’s top CEOs and chairpersons from the World Economic Forum’s Members and Partners, will also participate, alongside almost 100 CEOs and chairpersons of Unicorn companies and Tech Pioneers who are transforming industries and shaping the future or technology worldwide. Some of the top voices in technology and innovation taking part include: Jensen Huang, NVIDIA; Satya Nadella, Microsoft; Dario Amodei, Anthropic; Dina Powell McCormick, Meta; Demis Hassabis, Google DeepMind; Yoshua Bengio, Université de Montréal; Alex Karp, Palantir Technologies; Sarah Friar, OpenAI; Yuval Harari, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk; Khaldoon Khalifa Al Mubarak, Mubadala; Peggy Johnson, Agility Robotics; Arthur Mensch, Mistral AI; Bret Taylor, Sierra; Peng Xiao, G42; Eric Xing, Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence. “In an era where exponential technological innovation and geopolitical disruption are deeply intertwined, the need for constructive dialogue between policy-makers and industry is clear,” said Mirek Dušek, Managing Director, World Economic Forum. “Leaders will share views from across sectors to help build the understanding needed to balance short-term priorities and immediate challenges with long-term value creation.” Close to 200 leaders from civil society and the social sector – including labour unions, non-governmental and faith-based organizations, as well as experts and heads of the world’s leading universities, research institutions and think tanks – will also participate in the meeting. Heads of civil society organizations participating include: David Miliband, President and CEO, International Rescue Committee; Sania Nishtar, CEO, Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance; Luc Triangle, General Secretary, International Trade Union Confederation; Kirsten Schuijt, Secretary General, WWF International; Mohammad Al-Issa, Secretary General, Muslim World League; Comfort Ero, President and CEO, International Crisis Group; Pinchas Goldschmidt, Chief Rabbi and President, Conference of European Rabbis; Oleksandra Matviichuk, Nobel Peace Laureate and Chair, Ukraine Center for Civil Liberties; Peter Sands, Executive Director, The Global Fund; Amitabh Behar, Executive Director, Oxfam International; Aulani Wilhelm, President and Executive Director, Nia Tero. The 2026 programme is centred around five pressing global challenges where public-private dialogue and cooperation, involving all stakeholders, are critical for collective progress:How can we cooperate in a more contested world?How can we unlock new sources of growth?How can we better invest in people?How can we deploy innovation at scale and responsibly?How can we build prosperity within planetary boundaries? “In a global economy shaped by technology, geoeconomics, and demographics, the defining challenge will be whether opportunity is broadly shared or if growth remains sluggish and uneven,” said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director, World Economic Forum. “The meeting will connect leaders to discuss how to unlock growth, jobs and economic transformation that translate into progress for communities everywhere. “The meeting’s Arts and Culture Programme will further amplify the diversity of voices and perspectives needed to advance impact, while showcasing the power of art, influence, and culture to drive change and create unique space for dialogue. Renowned artistic and cultural leaders in attendance include: Marina Abramović, Jon Batiste, Thijs Biersteker, Sabrina Elba, Renaud Capuçon, Hiro Iwamoto, Suleika Jaouad, Sir David Beckham, Ahmad Joudeh, Yo-Yo Ma, Emi Kusano, Harvey Mason Jr, Hans Ulrich Obrist, Katie Piper, Ronen Tanchum, JR and will.i.am. The Open Forum, now in its 23rd year, will host public panel discussions for the local community and participants from around the world, encouraging wider participation and open dialogue on key global issues. |
