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Politics

Canadian Think Thank Sets Up Immigration Targets Council- Has Recommendations

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Line of Sight: Canada Needs Transparent and Predictable Immigration Targets

The C.D. Howe Institute Immigration Targets Council recently met, bringing together leading academics and policy experts to provide recommendations on Canada’s immigration levels for 2027–2029 and system design.

Council members emphasized the need for a transparent and predictable immigration system and expressed concern that rapid changes in immigration levels and the growth of the non-permanent resident (NPR) population have weakened public confidence in Canada’s immigration system. Members also emphasized that immigration policy should consider composition alongside overall levels, with greater priority for high-human-capital candidates within economic immigration.

For permanent immigration, the Council recommends annual admissions of 380,000 in 2027, 350,000 in 2028, and 340,000 in 2029, reflecting the median of members’ recommendations. Additional, time-limited permanent-resident admissions announced by the federal government last year outside the headline levels plan complicated the Council’s determination of an appropriate target for 2027. Members differed on how to reflect those previously announced admissions in the appropriate level for 2027.

The Council strongly recommends that the government not repeat this approach. All permanent-resident admissions, regardless of program or pathway, should be included in the government’s published permanent immigration target. The government should clearly disclose the expected admissions through each component of the plan and should not introduce additional permanent-resident streams outside the announced total. A comprehensive target is essential for transparency and for giving Canadians a clear picture of the actual scale of permanent immigration.

For temporary immigration, the Council recommends that the government reduce the NPR share to 5 percent by next year. Beyond that, 5 percent should be treated as a strict ceiling for NPRs, never to be exceeded, rather than as the target itself. In the medium to longer term, the target for the NPR population should move towards 3 percent of the population. Members emphasized that achieving this objective requires attention to more than new permit issuances. In particular, the government should strengthen requirements for permit renewals, improve its understanding of inflows and outflows from the NPR population, and reform the asylum system to improve its efficiency and integrity.

Better data are essential to this task.

Published statistics should clearly distinguish new permits from renewals, while Statistics Canada and the federal government should make better use of entry-exit data to measure departures and improve estimates of the number of people remaining in Canada after their status expires. Current data gaps make it unnecessarily difficult to understand and manage the NPR population.

Members supported substantially reducing low-skilled, non-agricultural temporary foreign worker entries over time, while recognizing the distinct labour-market role of seasonal agricultural workers. On international students, members emphasized improving program quality and integrity through stronger academic and language requirements, higher standards for institutions and programs, and limits on off-campus work. Members differed on whether numerical caps on study permits are the best mechanism for controlling inflows.

Finally, the Council recommends simplifying the pathway from temporary to permanent residence. Selection for economic permanent residence should be transparent, evidence-based, and predictable, using a strengthened Comprehensive Ranking System rather than discretionary or highly targeted selection. Prospective temporary residents should have a clearer understanding of their likelihood of qualifying for permanent residence.

Together, these recommendations would bring greater transparency, predictability, and control to Canada’s immigration system – steps the Council views as essential to maintaining public confidence in immigration policy.

Members of the C.D. Howe Institute Immigration Targets Council:
Members participate in their personal capacities, and the views collectively expressed do not represent those of any individual, institution, or client.

Chair:

  • Parisa Mahboubi, C.D. Howe Institute

Members:

  • Don Drummond, Queen’s University
  • Pierre Fortin, Université du Québec à Montréal
  • David Green, University of British Columbia
  • Michael Haan, Western University
  • Daniel Hiebert, University of British Columbia
  • Jason Kenney, Bennett Jones LLP
  • Mikal Skuterud, University of Waterloo
  • Catrina Tapley, Former Deputy Minister of IRCC
  • Christopher Worswick, Carleton University
  • Donald Wright, C.D. Howe Institute and Global Public Affairs

Featured image- Overcrowding reports coming in for Mississauga, ON city buses. insauga.com

Politics

Alleged Terrorist Plotter Was Seeking Refugee Status in Canada

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The Pakistani national who allegedly plotted to travel to New York to murder Jews was seeking refugee status in Canada, according to an immigration consultant.

Muhammad Shahzeb Khan, who came to Canada in June 2023 on a student visa, was arrested on Sept. 4 by the RCMP for allegedly intending to carry out a mass shooting targeting Jews in New York City. He was charged by U.S. authorities with attempting to provide material support and resources to a designated foreign terrorist organization, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), and the United States is seeking to have him extradited.

Fazal Qadeer, an immigration consultant who had worked with Khan, said Khan was applying for refugee status on the basis of sexual orientation, saying he is gay, CBC reported on Oct. 7.

It is not known what Khan’s refugee claim status was when he was arrested, but Qadeer said Khan had recently had a lengthy interview with Immigration, Refugee and Citizenship Canada (IRCC).

Immigration Minister Marc Miller said in September that Khan entered Canada on a student visa.

According to a U.S. criminal complaint that was unsealed in September 2024, Khan repeatedly expressed his support for ISIS and his intention to carry out a terrorist attack around November 2023.

u.s._v._khan_complaint_0Download

That month, he began interacting online with an undercover FBI agent, and explained his plan to attack Jewish religious centres in the United States around the time of the one-year anniversary of Hamas’s Oct. 7 terrorist attack against Israel.

Pakistani National Charged in Murder-for-Hire Plot Against US Official

What We Know About the Alleged ISIS Terror Plot by Pakistani National Arrested in Canada

In a statement, IRCC said it would not comment on individual cases, but that all asylum claimants receive an “independent and fair assessment on the individual merits of their claim,” which included whether they fear persecution based on race, religion, political opinion, nationality, or if they are LGBT.

Minister ‘Confident’ in Screening System

Khan’s arrest came months after a father and son were arrested by the RCMP in Richmond Hill, Ont., for allegedly being in the “advanced stages of planning a serious, violent attack in Toronto.” The two are facing nine terrorism charges, including conspiracy to commit murder on behalf of ISIS.

Ahmed Eldidi had been admitted into Canada in 2019 and later given citizenship, while Mostafa Eldidi was granted refugee status, according to documents provided by IRCC.

Miller defended Ottawa’s immigration system when appearing before the House of Commons public safety committee in September, saying the government remains “confident in the way our biometric system works in the progressive screening that operates in our country.”

Miller told the committee that Ahmed Eldidi had his initial temporary resident visa application refused because of concerns he would not leave Canada at the end of his authorized stay, but his second application was approved after an officer was satisfied he merely intended to visit Canada. He was given a favourable recommendation, Miller said, and officers found no issues that made him inadmissible to Canada.

Conservative MPs on the committee questioned screening procedures and accused the Liberal government of removing the mandatory requirement for police background checks for arrivals from some countries including Pakistan in 2018.

The IRCC’s website currently states that those applying for permanent residence, citizenship, or the International Experience Canada program “may need to provide a police certificate for any other programs” if they have a prior criminal record, but does not specifically mention Pakistan. For the Silo, Matthew Horwood.

Featured image- RCMP logo is seen outside the force’s ‘E’ division headquarters in Surrey, B.C., on March 16, 2023. The Canadian Press/Darryl Dyck.